Quantum Computers Edge Closer to Cracking Modern Cryptography, New Research Shows

Even if all the world’s supercomputers worked together for 10,000 years, they might still fail to crack some modern encryption codes. However, last month, a study released by Google and other institutions indicated that quantum computers could break these codes faster with far fewer resources, marking a significant step forward in quantum computing technology.

The Conversation, an Australian website, reported recently that progress in quantum computing is mainly reflected in two aspects. On one hand, tech giants such as IBM and Google are competing to build larger-scale quantum computers. IBM aims to achieve a real advantage over traditional computers in certain special cases this year and develop a more powerful fault-tolerant system by 2029. On the other hand, theoretical scholars are refining quantum algorithms, with the latest research showing that the resources required to crack today’s cryptography may be much lower than previously estimated.

Quantum computers operate differently from traditional ones, using qubits that can exist in multiple states simultaneously. This feature allows them to run certain algorithms, the most famous of which is Shor’s algorithm, proposed by American mathematician Peter Shor in 1994. Theoretically, these algorithms can solve the mathematical problems underpinning modern encryption more efficiently than current computers—problems that form the basis of Bitcoin, Ethereum and most of the internet.

Quantum computer research and development has entered an intense phase, with the main goal of increasing the number of connectable qubits to achieve “quantum advantage”. In November last year, IBM launched a 120-qubit chip named “Nighthawk”, hoping to demonstrate quantum advantage in some tasks. Earlier, in December 2024, Google unveiled its 105-qubit quantum chip Willow, which completed a standard benchmark computing task in less than 300 seconds—something the world’s fastest supercomputer, Frontier, would take hundreds of millions of years to finish.

Beyond these tech giants, new approaches are flourishing. PsiQuantum uses light-based qubits and traditional chip technology to build quantum computers, while experimental platforms such as neutral atom systems have demonstrated control over thousands of qubits in laboratories.

Hardware is only part of the story; equally important is the advancement of quantum algorithms—the methods used by quantum computers to crack encryption. For decades, it was believed that quantum computers would need millions of physical qubits to threaten real-world encryption, making the threat seem distant. But this is changing.

In March 2026, Google’s Quantum AI team released a detailed study showing that the resources required to attack information encrypted with elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) may be far less than previously thought. ECC, which is used by systems including Bitcoin and Ethereum, has shorter key lengths and higher computational efficiency than traditional algorithms like RSA at the same security level.

Google’s research indicated that a quantum computer with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could crack ECC in minutes—only one-tenth the scale previously estimated. Scientists from U.S. startup Oratomic, in a preprint released in March 2026, explored the possibility of efficiently cracking encryption with neutral atom quantum computers, suggesting a system with about 26,000 neutral atom qubits could break Bitcoin’s encryption in days using Shor’s algorithm.

In response, a Bitcoin security researcher noted there is a 10% probability that quantum computers capable of cracking modern codes will be built around 2030. To address this challenge, global standards bodies are accelerating the deployment of quantum-resistant encryption technologies, moving towards post-quantum cryptography. Google has set 2029 as the deadline for its post-quantum cryptography transition, with Chrome and Cloudflare already supporting related algorithms.