China’s Coal Sector Maintains Stable Operation with Strong Guarantee Capacity in 2026

Coal continues to play a crucial role in underpinning China’s energy security, accounting for more than 50% of the country’s total energy consumption. In the first quarter of 2026, raw coal production remained stable on the basis of a high base in the same period last year, with the output of raw coal by industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 0.1% year-on-year.

China National Coal Association released the "2025 Coal Industry Development Annual Report", which shows that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China’s coal supply capacity has been continuously improved. A total of 91 coal mines with an annual output of 10 million tons have been built nationwide, with a production capacity of 1.53 billion tons per year, an increase of 39 mines and 710 million tons per year compared with 2020. The annual railway transportation volume of coal in China has increased from 2.36 billion tons to more than 2.8 billion tons.

China Energy News reports that coal production is accelerating its shift to resource-rich areas. In 2025, the raw coal output of 8 provinces and regions with an annual output of 100 million tons reached 4.43 billion tons, accounting for 91.3% of the national total, an increase of 925 million tons and 1.5 percentage points in proportion compared with 2020. This shift has further optimized the layout of China’s coal production and enhanced the efficiency and stability of supply.

Regarding the trend of the coal market in 2026, Guo Zhonghua, Director of the Policy Research Department of China National Coal Association, introduced the supply and demand situation. From the demand side, coal consumption in the power industry is expected to increase slightly this year, while that in the iron and steel industry is expected to remain basically flat or decrease slightly, coal consumption in the building materials industry will drop slightly, and coal consumption in the coal chemical industry will keep growing.

From the supply side, on the basis of ensuring the supply of thermal coal, coal enterprises will actively adapt to the changing trend of coal demand, give full play to their role as a bottom-line guarantee, strengthen flexible production and supply regulation, and ensure the coal demand of downstream industries. Some newly approved and increased coal production capacity will be gradually released, and coal output in major coal-producing provinces such as Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi is expected to increase steadily.

China Energy Network notes that China’s coal imports maintained a relatively high level in the first two months of 2026, with a total of 77.2223 million tons imported, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. Combined with the current high level of coal inventory in the whole society, the overall supply and demand of the coal market is expected to be balanced throughout the year.

However, attention still needs to be paid to the impact of fluctuations in coal demand caused by factors such as international energy market volatility and extreme weather on regional and periodic markets. The report also points out that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the role of coal and coal-fired power as a bottom-line support and system regulation will become more prominent, and it is necessary to better improve the flexible regulation capacity of coal supply through various means.