China’s Economy Makes a Strong Start in Q1 2026, High-Frequency Data Shows

BEIJING, April 10 – Multiple high-frequency data indicators reveal that China’s economy has made a sound and robust start in the first quarter of 2026, with consumption, investment, foreign trade and technological innovation all showing positive momentum, according to the Big Data Development Department of the National Information Center under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

Driven by factors such as holidays and policies on replacing old consumer goods with new ones, both retail sales of consumer goods and service consumption rebounded well in Q1. Data on offline consumption showed that offline consumption payment volume increased by 3.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, 2.2 percentage points higher than the growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year.

Specifically, commodity consumption rose by 5.2% year-on-year, 3.2 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. Among them, electronic products and household appliances saw rapid growth, increasing by 10.7% and 8.4% year-on-year respectively – 2.4 and 23.5 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year. Service consumption grew by 0.9% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous quarter, with transportation services and catering services rising by 6.9% and 4.5% respectively.

Xing Yuguan, Associate Researcher at the Big Data Development Department of the National Information Center, stated that China’s offline consumption in Q1 2026 had a sound start with steady total volume and optimized structure. “The strong demand for home appliances and digital products is the result of targeted policies such as ultra-long-term special government bonds supporting the replacement of old consumer goods and optimized personal consumption loan interest subsidies,” he noted, as reported by Xinhua News Agency.

In terms of investment, proactive fiscal policies and the concentrated start of major projects provided strong support for growth. In Q1, the winning bid amount of projects related to computing power infrastructure construction and software and hardware development increased by 4.7% year-on-year. Capital investment in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence (AI) and humanoid robots surged by 45.5% year-on-year.

“Calculations by the National Information Center show that the issuance of new special bonds nationwide increased by 20.8% year-on-year in Q1,” Xing Yuguan added. “Proactive investment-stabilizing policies have been implemented ahead of schedule, with funds focused on key areas and weak links, accelerating the implementation of major projects and boosting investment vitality in smart economy-related fields such as AI and computing power.”

It is worth noting that experts pointed out that the rhythm of economic operation and data in Q1 were affected by the “Spring Festival misalignment” factor. Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist and Director of the Research Institute at Yuekai Securities, said the late Spring Festival this year had delayed the cycle of “pre-holiday rush work - Spring Festival shutdown - post-holiday resumption”, technically pushing up the year-on-year data from January to February while putting pressure on March data.

For example, the cement shipment rate, an indicator of engineering activity, was higher than the same period last year in early January to February but lower from late February to March. “We should fully consider the impact of the Spring Festival factor and analyze January to March together to objectively evaluate the real trend and internal driving force of economic operation at the beginning of the year,” Luo added, as reported by Xinhua News Agency.

As the domestic demand market warms up, China’s foreign trade has also maintained a growth momentum. In Q1, the deadweight of cargo ships departing and arriving at major ports increased by 9.6% and 5.4% year-on-year respectively, 23.4 and 7.0 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year. The average daily port cargo and container throughput rose by 2.4% and 8.5% year-on-year.

High-frequency data also showed that the business vitality index of start-ups and technology-innovative enterprises increased by 8.8% and 8.1% year-on-year respectively in Q1. Notably, AI-related innovation was vibrant: patent data showed that the number of authorized patents related to strategic emerging industries in China increased by 8.7% year-on-year in Q1, with a 18.4% rise in March; among them, AI-related patent authorizations surged by 31.2% year-on-year in Q1 and 39.8% in March .

These positive high-frequency data fully reflect the strong resilience and vitality of China’s economy. The coordinated growth of consumption, investment, foreign trade and technological innovation has laid a solid foundation for the stable operation of the macro economy, demonstrating China’s unwavering momentum in pursuing high-quality development.